How is mobile number churn measured?

In the telecommunications industry, mobile number churn refers to the rate at which mobile subscribers discontinue service with one provider and either switch to another or deactivate their number altogether. Measuring churn is crucial for telecom companies as it directly impacts revenue, customer retention strategies, and market competitiveness.

But how exactly is mobile number churn measured? What metrics and techniques are involved? Let’s explore the concept in depth.

What Is Mobile Number Churn?

Churn broadly means the loss of customers. In mobile telephony, it can mean:

• Subscriber churn: When a customer cancels their service subscription.

• Number churn: When a mobile number becomes inactive, either because the user has switched providers (porting their number) or deactivated the number altogether.

Both types affect mobile recent mobile phone number data number churn measurement, but the focus is usually on understanding how many numbers are lost or changed over a given period.

Why Measure Mobile Number Churn?

• Business health indicator: High churn indicates dissatisfaction or better offers from competitors.

• Revenue forecasting: Losing subscribers means losing future revenue.

• Customer retention: Measuring churn helps in designing strategies to retain users.

• Network and service optimization: Understanding churn reasons can lead to the role of rcs data in omnichannel marketing improved offerings.

Key Metrics for Measuring Mobile Number Churn

1. Churn Rate

The most basic measure is the churn rate, which is the percentage of mobile numbers that become inactive during a specific time period (usually monthly or quarterly).

Churn Rate=Number of churned mobile numbers in a periodTotal active mobile numbers at the start of the period×100\text{Churn Rate} = \frac{\text{Number of churned mobile numbers in a period}}{\text{Total active mobile numbers at the start of the period}} \times 100Churn Rate=Total active mobile numbers at the start of the periodNumber of churned mobile numbers in a period​×100

• For example, if a telecom operator starts the month with 1,000,000 active numbers virgin islands mobile data and loses 20,000 by month-end, the churn rate is:

20,0001,000,000×100=2%\frac{20,000}{1,000,000} \times 100 = 2\%1,000,00020,000​×100=2%

2. Gross Churn vs. Net Churn

• Gross churn: Total number of customers lost in a period.

• Net churn: Takes into account new activations or port-ins (new numbers coming in). It is calculated as:

$$\text{Net Churn}=\text{Churned numbers}-\text{New activations or port-ins}$$

This gives a more accurate picture of customer base growth or decline.

3. Voluntary vs. Involuntary Churn

• Voluntary churn: When customers actively switch providers or deactivate their number.

• Involuntary churn: Results from reasons like non-payment, fraud, or network issues causing the operator to disconnect the number.

Understanding these distinctions helps operators address different causes.

Data Sources and Techniques for Measuring Churn

1. Call Detail Records (CDRs) and Billing Systems

Telecom operators rely heavily on CDRs and billing data to track active subscribers. A number is considered active if it generates call, SMS, or data usage records within a certain period.

• Numbers with no activity for a set duration (e.g., 90 days) may be classified as churned or inactive.

• Billing records also indicate if subscription payments stopped, implying churn.

2. Number Portability Databases

With Mobile Number Portability (MNP), customers can switch carriers but keep their number. Operators monitor port-out data to track churn due to switching.

• If a number is ported out, it’s recorded as churn for the original carrier.

• Port-in numbers are added to the customer base, helping calculate net churn.

3. Customer Relationship Management (CRM) Systems

CRM databases help track voluntary churn by logging customer cancellations, complaints, or requests to disconnect service.

Churn Measurement Time Frames

• Monthly churn rate is the most common, reflecting short-term changes.

• Quarterly or annual churn helps identify long-term trends and seasonality.

The time frame impacts how churn is interpreted—short periods may show spikes.

Challenges in Measuring Mobile Number Churn

1. Inactive vs. churned numbers

Some numbers may remain registered but unused for months. Deciding when an inactive number is truly churned can be tricky.

2. Number recycling

Operators often recycle numbers after a quarantine period, which can distort churn data if recycled numbers appear as new activations.

3. Porting complexities

Porting numbers across carriers can lead to double counting if records aren’t synchronized.

4. Multiple SIM usage

Some users maintain multiple numbers, switching usage between them. This can mask churn or create artificial churn.

5. Regulatory differences

In some regions, rules about number deactivation and portability vary, complicating standardized churn measurement.

Advanced Methods for Measuring and Predicting Churn

• Machine Learning and Predictive Analytics

Telecom companies use machine learning models to predict churn based on customer behavior, usage patterns, complaints, and demographics. These predictions help target at-risk customers for retention offers.